The Winning Formula for Presidential Elections

In my forthcoming book, ‘Anatomy of Nigeria’s 2023 Presidential Election’, due for publication in the last week of October 2026, I make a number of bold assertions after scrutinising voting patterns in our presidential elections in the Fourth Republic. Today, as I watch leading opposition parties dilly-dally over how to uproot the APC from Aso Rock, I find it essential to share some of my observations, thoughts and conclusions in the book — hoping that politicians, political analysts and strategists will find them useful. Because emotions are always sky-high during presidential elections, the underlying principles that provide the winning formula are often missed although they are always in plain sight.

My first assertion is that a candidate must have “two out of three” of the “tripod zones” to be elected president. I will explain. Politically, Nigeria is built on a tripod: the Hausa/Fulani, the Igbo and the Yoruba. These three power blocs dominate four of the six geo-political zones and control nearly two-thirds of the 36 states of the federation. The Hausa and Fulani, often referred to as the “core north”, are distinct ethnic groups that are politically conjoined as Hausa/Fulani because of their cultural and religious affinity. They are dominant in the north-east and the north-west. The other legs of the tripod — the Igbo and the Yoruba — dominate the south-east and the south-west respectively.

What, then, is the “two out of three” formula? Since 1999, no candidate has been elected president without getting significant votes from two of these three power blocs. Some clarity would help here: winning “significant votes” does not mean securing a landslide; anything from 30 percent upwards would be desirable. This pathway to victory has been so consistent since 1999 that it has almost become a law. Nigeria has held seven presidential elections since the dawn of this republic, and every winner has been the candidate who did well in two of these three power blocs. Of course, this is in addition to getting a decent share of the minority zones: the north-central and the south-south.

In 1999, President Olusegun Obasanjo lost in his home zone, the south-west, but did well in the core north and the south-east to defeat Chief Olu Falae, who won in only the Yoruba-dominated zone. Obasanjo proved that losing at home is not fatal if you do very well away. Four years later, Gen Muhammadu Buhari, Obasanjo’s main challenger, did very well in the core north, but that was only “one out of three”. Obasanjo scored “two out of three” — winning the south-west and the south-east — and was re-elected, albeit with a sizeable share of the minority zones. Buhari had been hoping the election would go into a run-off so that he could use the northern numbers to win it.

The state-by-state results of the 2007 presidential election were never made public. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) released only the overall figures in the most muddled-up election in our history. Both candidates — Buhari and Alhaji Umaru Musa Yar’Adua — were from the same state and zone, and of the same ethnic group and religion, so there was nothing separating them in terms of primordial sentiments. But Yar’Adua obviously won the south-west and the south-east, in addition to the two minority zones: the north-central and the south-south. What happened in the core north was anybody’s guess, but Buhari most likely got only “one out of three”.

In 2011, Buhari maintained his hold on the core north but President Goodluck Jonathan performed extremely well in “two out of three” — the south-west and the south-east — to win the presidential election. That was the third time Buhari had relied on the core north to make him president and that was his third loss in a row. He thereafter aligned with the mainstream politicians in the south-west and finally got the crucial “two out of three” — the core north and the south-west — in the 2015 election to clinch the elusive trophy. Jonathan, himself a minority, got only “one out of three” — the south-east — in addition to the south-south, but the votes were not enough for him to retain power.

Four years later, Buhari retained power through the same “two out of three” rule, securing victory in both the core north and the south-west. He won the northern minority zone too. Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, his major opponent, won “one out of three” — the south-east — as well as the southern minority zone. That was not enough to get him past the line ahead of Buhari. Despite being from the core north, Atiku was thoroughly defeated by the vote-winning machine known as Buhari. Atiku, from the north-east, got only 27 percent of the votes in his own zone. In the north-west, Buhari’s home turf, Atiku got a similar percentage. He won in only two of the 13 states in those two zones.

The tightest presidential election since 1999 took place in 2023. Each leg of the tripod had a strong candidate: Asiwaju Bola Tinubu (Yoruba), Atiku (Fulani) and Mr Peter Obi (Igbo). It was a genuine three-horse race. Tinubu did well in “two out of three” — the south-west and the core north. Atiku won in the core north (the north-west and the north-east combined) but Tinubu performed so well in those zones that Atiku’s advantage was just 229,693 votes. Tinubu had 38 percent while Atiku got 41 percent. For context, Buhari used to win the bloc with huge gaps: 4 million in 2003, 4.9 million in 2011, 7.8 million in 2015, and 5.7 million in 2019. Mind you, these were just the gaps, not his votes.

My second assertion: while the “two out of three” rule may be instrumental to winning a presidential election, the role of the northern and southern minorities is also vital. With presidential elections becoming more competitive and serious candidates coming from the tripod, the minorities might, sooner than later, become the tie-breakers. It happened in 1979 when the tripod blocs all had strong candidates on the ballot. Indeed, it was when Alhaji Shehu Shagari’s 925,661 votes from Cross River and Rivers came in that he was declared the president-elect. In total, Shagari polled 5,788,857 votes while Chief Obafemi Awolowo, his closest rival, had 4,916,651 votes — a difference of just 872,206.

For 2027, we once again have Tinubu, Atiku and Obi in the race. It promises to be another tight one if Nigerians vote along primordial lines as they normally do. As well as performing well in “two out of three”, the successful candidate may also have to get sizeable support from either the north-central or the south-south — or both. Although Tinubu did well in “two out of three” in 2023, his votes from the north-central helped him. He secured 40 percent of the votes to make up for his average outing in the south-south, where he got 29 percent. He recorded his worst results in the south-east, getting only six percent. Obi, the homeboy, scored 90 percent, the highest for any candidate across all zones.

My third assertion is that the successful candidate does not need to win more states than the closest opponent — what he has to do is perform well in states with huge vote banks. All states are equal but some are more equal than others. Getting 25 percent in Ekiti is not the same as 25 percent in Kano. The value is different. The KKK states — Kano, Kaduna and Katsina — hold the bulk of north-western votes. With elections getting very competitive, a 30 percent portion of their votes can be very vital. In 2023, for example, Tinubu won only two of the seven states in the north-west, but his Kano share also made him outscore Atiku, who won four. Dr Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso won only Kano.

Meanwhile, the opposition remains split ahead of 2027. Atiku is obviously banking on the core north to make him president, but Buhari tried this formula thrice without success — until he changed tack in 2015 and the “two out of three” formula worked for him. And Atiku does not own the core north the way Buhari did. I believe Obi already has “one out of three” on his side, but can he get one more leg of the tripod with Kwankwaso? Fulfilling the “two out of three” rule may be tough if Atiku and Obi don’t coalesce. Tinubu, on his part, would be hoping to win the south-west and also do well in the core north zones by scoring anything from 30 percent upwards there. Two out of three, that is.

I am aware that correlation is not causation. That previously successful candidates did well in “two out of three” does not automatically make it a winning formula. It is possible that I was blindsided by other factors. But all I have done is look at the historical statistics, appraise the voting patterns and tease out the electoral behaviours of Nigerian voters. Hence, if I were a presidential candidate, I would be interested in performing well at home and would also make sure I get significant votes from another of the tripod blocs to secure the precious “two out of three”. I would also make sure I do well in a two minority zone. I would not spend much time arguing over correlation and causation.

AND FOUR OTHER THINGS…

IN ONE ACCORD

APC leaders in Osun state have been openly hobnobbing with Governor Ademola Adeleke who was recently re-elected. The APC candidate, Mr Bola Oyebamiji, has congratulated him — and that means there would be no election petition. Senator Ajibola Basiru, the APC national secretary, also visited Adeleke to congratulate him. Above all, Senator Francis Fadahunsi, who was caught on camera appearing to ask his supporters to kill members of Accord, has posted a message on his Facebook page to “heartily congratulate” Adeleke. In case you are wondering what is going on here, there are over one million votes in the state — and the presidential election is just four months away. Politics!

FAKE NEWS FIESTA

After Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, the ADC presidential candidate, promised to restore petrol subsidy and forgive student loans, he became a subject of fun on social media. Outlandish quotes were invented and attributed to him, with spoof newspaper cover designs claiming that, if elected president, he would jail landlords who collect rent from tenants. The spoof actually backfired with some Nigerians who truly thought Atiku said it and were already celebrating rent-free housing. One takeaway for me is that many Nigerians would prefer a socialist system in which virtually everything will be free or subsidised. Unfortunately, where will the government get the money to pay for it? Fantasies.

UBER SPEEDS OFF

It was sad to read that Uber has discontinued operations in Nigeria after 12 years. The ride-hailing firm said it took the decision as a result of “evolving business priorities and investment focus”. No matter how we look at it, this is not good news. There are global brands that give a country a sense of being part of a community, and Uber had become one. The consolation, should I say, is that Nigeria is not the only African country the company is leaving — Uganda is also on the list. If I am being sincere, I am not too surprised that Uber decided to quit. From my experience, some drivers took Uber for a ride. Many of them can ruin any business with their sharp practices. Unprofessional.

NO COMMENT

The south-east chapter of the Renewed Hope for Greater Nigeria (RHGN) surely has a magnificent pipe dream: to persuade Mr Peter Obi, the NDC presidential candidate and the south-east’s great hope, to step down for President Bola Tinubu. Chief Franklin Ngoforo, leader of the group, said the leadership of Ohanaeze Ndigbo would be approached to intervene. This, he said, is not intended to diminish Obi’s political stature “but to persuade him to place the long-term strategic interests of Ndigbo above the immediate pursuit of a presidential ticket”. Nice try. Have others also considered approaching Afenifere to persuade Tinubu to withdraw from the race and support Obi? Hahahaha…